When it comes to making sense of President Donald Trump's public statements, especially his tweets, the first rule is to not think too hard. Trump is not operating out of a secret genius playbook. There is no game theory reasoning in effect here.

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Let's get these two things out the way: First, the overriding and unfortunate lesson of recent American politics is that if presidential candidates and presidents accused of sexual misconduct just stay the course, they'll either get elected or survive in office. There's a Democrat named Clinton and a Republican named Trump who bear that out.

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